"With its CEO recently buying $10 million of shares, PepsiAmericas Inc. (NYSE: PAS) has to be considered one of the most credible Insider stories in quite some time," notes Jack Adamo.
Here, in his Insiders Plus newsletter, the advisor -- who specializes in assessing situations in which corporate insiders are purchasing stock -- he looks at the world's second-largest Pepsi bottler.
"When I was a kid, a Pepsi was a dime; today, it's about $1.50 for the same size bottle. So, forgive me if I laugh myself silly when analysts say Pepsi bottlers are in trouble due to cost inflation.
"The price of the product has gone up at a compound annual rate of 5.6% per year for 50 years. Is this year going to kill it? I think not. Nor does CEO, Rober Pohlad whose recent purchase was done through a family-owned holding company.
"It was not a huge buy in relation to his holdings -- it increased his stake in the company from 9.6% to 9.9% -- but $10 million is $10 million. Do that a few times, and pretty soon it starts adding up to real money. (Sorry, couldn't resist.)
"The stock has fallen this year from $36 to $26, which is about where he made his recent buys. After a blowout 2007, the company guided down expectations for 2008, citing economic weakness. The stock quickly tanked.
"'I think that the reaction after our fourth-quarter call was surprising,' Pohlad said. The 'good part was...from a personal standpoint, it looked like a great opportunity to buy, and I did.'
"How could anyone argue with him? For the last 20 years, PepsiAmericas stock has compounded at an annualized rate of 17%. That rate has not slowed, either. Even after the recent pullback, the stock has delivered 17.5% compounded growth for the last 5 years. The dividend has increased 80% in that period.
"Another knock on the stock suggested that PepsiCo has its bottlers, like PepsiAmericas, 'over a barrel.' The claim is that PepsiCo can foist price increases on the bottlers, who are powerless to stop them. I think the rise in the product price and the superb performance of the stock show that no one has the bottlers in a headlock.
"Here's another reason not to buy the stock, assuming you're lazy, careless, and haven't bothered to look at the facts. Sales of carbonated beverages are falling in the U.S. That's true, but total sales of PepsiAmericas' many product lines are growing quite nicely, thank you.
"Global revenue growth is expected to be between 13% and 15% in 2008. Sales of non-carbonated beverages, like Lipton ice tea products and energy/hydration drinks, are increasing share of sales at about 4% per year.
"Even more importantly, the company name is a misnomer. It is by no means just an American distributor. Sales are growing taking off in Eastern Europe, including Romania, Poland, Ukraine and the Czech Republic. The company already has a significant presence in Russia.
"U.S. sales grew less than 1% last year. Sales in Central and Eastern Europe grew more than 34%. Rapid growth should continue throughout the region; there are no strong local brands to oppose it.
"With a slowdown in sales, and rising costs from European investments, the company should only deliver single digit EPS growth this year. But with an eventual pick-up in world economies, and the investments in Europe bearing dividends, earnings should really gear up in 2009 and beyond.
"At 14-times expected earnings, and an historical growth rate of 17%, we're looking at a price-to -earnings-to-growth ratio of less than 1. That is always a tremendous bargain, failing so incipient radical long-term change in business conditions. That is not the case here.
"I consider this a bargain and think we're likely to make at least 20% per year in PepsiAmericas. Even before the recent buys by the CEO, this company had to be considered a standout Insider candidate, simply for the very high Insider ownership. PepsiAmericas is a buy up to $29."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.







