Reuters reports that ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) CEO Rex Tillerson went on The Today Show this morning to discuss the price of gasoline. Why? I think it's because he wants to diffuse political pressure to raise taxes on oil companies. Tillerson said that the price of gas is so high that people are using less of it.
But the subtext, in my opinion, was to put a face on the industry in the mind of the public so that it would be harder for politicians to harness public anger into higher taxes. Some big oil companies now have "too much" money coming in, with oil prices as high as they are. One of them has recently been in low-level debates with investors over what to do with all their cash as in "they can't spend it fast enough," an irony when gas prices are so high.
But as I posted yesterday, not all oil companies think that they have too much money coming in. Many such as Exxon and Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) have reported disappointing earnings in the first quarter because the price of a barrel of oil has doubled while the wholesale price of gasoline has risen only 39%.
With demand in the U.S. down and too much refining capacity, these U.S. refiners are shutting down production so they can justify raising consumer prices at the pump even more. I figure that if they can cut back on refining capacity and the price of a barrel of oil goes up to $200, the refiners will be able to charge $8.53 a gallon and then they'll restore their margins to where they believe they rightfully belong.Many oil companies could not care less about the social angles of high gas prices. The industry may be happy if Tillerson can succeed in diffusing public anger against the oil companies by answering questions and getting its position across to the public. While I doubt the public will sympathize with its economic problems, Exxon is clearly gambling that putting a face to the company is part of a multi-pronged PR battle to keep the industry's taxes low.
As far as the financial angle – the oil companies have at least six options for the excess money including:
- pay it out as dividends,
- invest it in exploration for more energy,
- create alternative energy products,
- acquire other energy companies or get into a completely different industry – to diversify earnings,
- buy back their stock,
- buy stocks and bonds for short-term investment purposes.
The oil companies perceive that they have an obligation to shareholders, but not to the public and they could care less about irony. They are in business to make a profit and they only care about how much that profit-making squeezes the public if citizens' frustration translates into higher taxes for their business.
If they can appear to care, they may be able to diffuse that threat to their net income.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.








Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-15-2008 @ 10:30AM
william lindblad said...
I have a better idea, but it is not one that either the oil companies nor our politicians want to hear.
Price control - put a maximum price on for the next three months. Try to later go after the oil companies with the "excess profit taxes" as was the case after the oil embargo did little to curb greed. A different approach is in order before they bring this country to it's knees. Congress should initiate (1) temporary price control (2) a panel of independent oversight to review refinery production (3) some still fines and jail time for any executive found circumventing the desired effect.
None of this will happen has Congress hung out a "for sale" sign long ago. They are much too busy serving special interests than the electorate.
5-15-2008 @ 10:49AM
Dan Barnett said...
In the Washington DC area one of the Oil Industry PAC is running radio advertisements against the taxing of the Industry's record profits. Another talks about how pension funds "really" own the Big Oil Companies.
Of course they've got a PR probles & need as many human faces as they can manage.
The only solution the industry has to the pricing problem is to drill in ANWR
5-15-2008 @ 10:52AM
Jeff said...
Exxon spent too much time tending to money over stakeholders. Exploitation eventually catches up with you.
5-15-2008 @ 10:58AM
Tom said...
Get Americans out of "gas guzzling" vehicles, such as trucks and SUVs, and things will be far better.
I filled up my Toyota Yaris this morning: $27.77 for 7.5 gallons...got 37 mpg...
5-15-2008 @ 11:01AM
Harry said...
We can put a man on the moon but we haven't developed a new gasoline engine that can get 75 highway, 50 in town...
It just isn't a priority...
5-15-2008 @ 11:38AM
Michael Schneider said...
Donald Trump this morning was saying he would tax the oil companies "into oblivion." T Boone Pickens later said the Donald should stick with real estate (synopses of both interviews are available free in the Spotlight section at http://www.Barrelomoney.com).
I wouldn't be surprised to see big oil moving more into alternative energy to create a better public face and to help diversify from the high costs of exploration and lack of good areas of exploration. Also, I would not be surprised to see more acquisitons in the nat gas area.
5-15-2008 @ 1:08PM
nomadguy said...
If you believe in Capitalism and the free market, it is best to leave the oil companies alone. They are producing wells @ $100 oil they would close if the price dropped back to $50 as they would be unprofitable. As we were all taught in High School Economics the price is set where the supply and demand curves meet. Unfortunately there are as many people who can't grasp that theory as adults any better than when they were in school.
5-15-2008 @ 1:40PM
Frank said...
In my lifetime, the price of crude world-wide was controlled first by the Texas Railroad Commission, then by OPEC, now by the New York Mercantile Exchange. If you want to solve the price problem, do something about the MERC and the hedge funds.
5-15-2008 @ 2:16PM
Bernie R. said...
I am hoping that ExxonMobil moves their operations to the Far East and South America (what - they ALREADY do that???) and their headquarters (including the I/T department) to Bemuda and we can then get away from this increasingly Socialistic hellhole called the United States.
If the Democrats win the Presidency and a majority in Congress, they will tax oil companies at the pump and everywhere else, and of course, ExxonMobil will just pass the taxes on to YOU, the consumer.
American Public schools: Producers of Dolts...
Then ExxonMobil should close all of the gasoline stations (which are HIGH in liability and LOW in profits) and make even MORE PROFITS just exploring for, finding, drilling for, producing, and SELLING the oil (at $120 per barrel and the company is so efficient, it makes a few billion in profit when oil is at $10 per barrel) and natural gas to OTHER companies so that THEY can refine the products (along with gas stations, refining is not very profitable).
Then with less competetition, the price of fuel will go UP even more!
Go ahead, you dolts, keep pushing ExxonMobil out of the United States. When you have to purchase your oil from Chavez of Venezuela, Achmadinijad of Iran, and Putin of Russia, you will wish ExxonMobil was still around to get you gasoline at that low price of $3.50 per gallon...
5-15-2008 @ 3:11PM
Bernie R. said...
The "author" says:
"The oil companies perceive that they have an obligation to shareholders, but not to the public and they could care less about irony. They are in business to make a profit and they only care about how much that profit-making squeezes the public if citizens' frustration translates into higher taxes for their business.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Is this guy for real??? He runs a business???
Remind me not to send my children to Babson College....
The "shareholders" ARE the intelligent members of the "public" and the members of the "public" who don't invest in ExxonMobil are missing out on a chance to have the returns on their investment PAY FOR EVERY GALLON OF GASOLINE THEY HAVE BOUGHT OR WILL BUY DUIRNG THEIR LIFETIME...
DUH!!!!!!!!!!
It looks like most Americans are not worthy of individual freedom as they expect some government entity to hold their hands throughout their life.
5-15-2008 @ 4:32PM
CrossProfit said...
Mr. Cohan,
You stated as follows:
"With demand in the U.S. down and too much refining capacity, these U.S. refiners are shutting down production so they can justify raising consumer prices at the pump even more."
Can you please advise us precisely when the U.S. stopped importing refined product (gasoline) due to refinery capacity shortages in the Northeast?
Please state your source. If you came to this conclusion on your own based on the official utilization percentage figures, you are misinformed. Utilization never reaches 100% as there is always some maintenance work and other considerations that require the figure to vacillate between the low to mid 90's.
If capacity utilization were ever to fall to the low 80's, then you could possibly say that supply outstrips demand. This is not likely to happen any time soon as the U.S. lacks the refining infrastructure to supply the current demand.
Total gasoline consumption has fallen nearly 1% on a YOY comparison, not enough to create a surplus yet just enough to get the refiners to compete and increase prices at a slower pace.
CrossProfit
http://www.crossprofit.com
5-16-2008 @ 1:03AM
hohums said...
William lindblad. Anyone who knows economics knows that price control and and excess profit tax will not work. Every country that has tried this with any product (including oil) has failed because it works against the free market and you end up in a much worse situation. What gov need to do is the complete opposite to encourage competition. They should also stop red tapping new oil projects. Anywhere else in the world you can start drilling in 20 days after you get a permit in many cases in the US it takes years. Not many companies have that sort of stamina.
You should study up on your economics.
5-16-2008 @ 8:27AM
verysimply said...
The author seems very confused. As an example he says "Many oil companies could care less about the social angles of high gas prices. "
Doesn't he mean "Many oil companies could NOT care less about the social angles of high gas prices. " ?
Anyone really buying this nonsense ?
5-23-2008 @ 2:41PM
John said...
Look at ExxonMobil's stock performance for the last year. Their shareholders are not being unjustly rewarded.
5-25-2008 @ 6:26PM
Arch said...
In Alberta Canada we are paying about $4.75 per US gallon and we get the oil right out of the ground here.
Consider yourself lucky if you only pay $4.00 a gallon.
5-28-2008 @ 4:37PM
Diane Clark said...
Capitalism has really gotten out of hand, eh? I am in full support of a civil war. "When the government fears the people, we will have liberty."....Thomas Jefferson
5-31-2008 @ 4:57PM
hohums said...
William lindblad. Anyone who knows economics knows that price control and and excess profit tax will not work. Every country that has tried this with any product (including oil) has failed because it works against the free market and you end up in a much worse situation. What gov need to do is the complete opposite to encourage competition. They should also stop red tapping new oil projects. Anywhere else in the world you can start drilling in 20 days after you get a permit in many cases in the US it takes years. Not many companies have that sort of stamina.
You should study up on your economics.