Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.
Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) itself is down from $250 to a very soft $177 (it's traded as low as $161.21 today) and does not appear to be at risk as much as some of its competitors, companies that do not look as competitive any more. Bear Stearns is gone, Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) is on the ropes and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) are teetering.
Reliable software giant Microsoft Inc. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is down from $37.50 to $27 and is so desperate for some traction that it is wasting its time with something called the Zune and made an unsuccessful offer to acquire Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), which is also down on its luck; 50% down since it rejected the offer.
I do not own any of these stocks, and I could list a thousand stocks to keep them company. Some that I do own as "core holdings" that are down include Huaneng Power Intl ADS (NYSE: HNP) that was trading as high as $57 and is now a more affordable $27 per share. Another one of my favorites, Intuitive Surgical Inc (NASDAQ: ISRG), is down from $360 to $260 and may drop further as hospitals look to conserve capital the rest of the year and into the uncertainty of a new presidential administration and economy. Even that old standby for tough times Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) has shown weakness dropping 20% from around $5,000 to $4,000 a share.
I could point to some energy and food stocks that have done well this year but those could lose their footing as well if oil prices do not hold up. There are those that think we are in a short term speculative bubble and they could give back some of the this year's gains.
So where to hide? What if anything has been stable? The following five companies made the grade.
1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ): This one is probably not any surprise. There was no money to be made here but you would not have lost any either. Year to date it has traded between $68 and $64 and that is about where it has been for quite some time. It does pay almost a 3% dividend yield and that's mighty fine these days.
2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA): Pharmaceuticals have long been a safe haven in troubled times and the world's largest maker of generic drugs is sitting pretty these days with expanding markets everywhere it looks. This Israeli company has traded roughly between $43 and $47 for quite some time, pays a 1% yield and looks to have plenty of upside going forward.
3) Chubb Corp (NYSE: CB) the conservative insurance company has held up better than most of its peers. Over the past six months and going back two years it has hovered between $49 and $54, all the time paying about a 2.6% yield.
4) Xcel Energy (NYSE: XEL) is a holding company for numerous utilities. Over the course of the past twelve volatile months it has been trading in a 10% range between $20 and $22 while paying a huge yield, which today stands at 4.8%.
5) Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) may be a great place to hide if you want to forget your troubles, whether you chose the new Pixar hit movie "WALL-E" or Disneyland, or a trip down memory lane renting or downloading any one of its countless hits from its film library. The stock is currently trading in the neighborhood of $30.62, mid-point in its 52 week range. Over the past six months it has spent most of the time drifting between $30 and $33 per share with a few drops and pops here and there. The 1.1% yield is not as generous as the others but it I would be happy to take it.
What do they have in common? They are diversified among their industries, have growth horizons, and of course they all pay dividends. But the standout at this juncture seems to be that they all have shrewd conservative management teams -- and they have been in the right place, at the right time, and prepared.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of BRK.B, HNP, ISRG, JNJ.








Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1. Excellent content - as you always provide and inspires me to come again and again.
Posted at 9:32AM on Jul 3rd 2008 by tanya
2. I truly believe you can buy 10,000 shares of Citigroup today and laugh at your friends next year.
Goldman is in great shape, PNC Bank seems to be weathering the storm well, IBM is up for the year. Anything with an outlandish P/E is suspect. (FSLR) Just remember that you're in this game for nine innings. Don't become caught in the fantasy. If you can make money and walk away do so. Watch for upgrades and surprises. Hit it and walk away; don't trade everyday. The market is sick. Look what happened to the coal stocks this week. I had ANR but I sold at $90. I get nervous when the money comes that easy. Most folks should wait until the storm passes; few captains can navigate in this type of sea. Yes, you'll miss the easy money during the initial recovery but that will be more than offset by the finds you've lost chasing the bottom. As I heard Warren Buffett say one time when asked about economic malaise,
"It'll last longer than you believe but not as long as you fear." Oddly I feel much more comfortable when the market declines by a large number in this environment because I don't believe that rallies, except in individual stocks, and then for only a short period, can be sustained.
Beltway Greg
Posted at 12:21PM on Jul 4th 2008 by Beltway Greg