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Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded Dicks Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation.
  
• Home Depot (NYSE: HD) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform by Morgan Keegan.
  
• Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Avondale.

Analyst downgrades:

• BMO Capital downgraded Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) to Underperform from Market Perform due to valuation and macro headwinds.
  
• UBS dropped Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) to Neutral from Buy because of slowing casual dining trends.
• Goldman Sachs dropped Affiliated Computer (NYSE: ACS) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Goldman also downgraded Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP) to Neutral from Buy.

Analyst initiations:

• CIBC initiated Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT) with a Sector Performer rating based on what they see as the company's limited growth and margin prospects.
  
• Needham initiated Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) with a Hold rating, citing valuation.
  
• Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) was initiated with a Hold by Needham, which would like to see if the company's turnaround is sustainable before becoming more constructive on the shares.

"Any further market weakness creates creates another opportunity to acquire some outstanding stocks," suggests Kelley Wright, noted for his focus on blue chip, dividend-paying stocks.

In his Investment Quality Trends newsletter, he looks at the benefits of keeping a long-term focus, the value of dividend districutions to an investor's long-term returns, and his current "timely ten" picks for conservative investor.

"The cash dividend for the Dow is $322.40. One year ago the dividend was $284.06. Amidst all the turmoil in the markets and the economy something must be going right with the Dow 30 companies because the dividend is ever climbing.

"Dividends, as we all know, can only come from the reality of earnings; you can't pay what you don't have. The dividend yield on the Dow is currently 2.66%, which represents an 11% downside to a 3.0% yield and the historically repetitive area of Undervalue.

"Will the Average make it down to that level? No one knows but that isn't the point. At current levels the upside is FAR greater, particularly in many of the stocks in our Undervalued area.

"As far as safety goes, Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP) is hard to beat," says Gregory Dorsey in Leeb's Income Performance Report. Here's the advisor's review.

"In our search for stocks that can not only grow in good times, but will also hold up well when the going gets rough, we find ADP. Its steady cash generation means the company has a number of options at its disposal when it comes to maximizing shareholder value.

"ADP offers services including payroll processing, human resource benefits administration products and other outsourcing services. The stock's P/E, using expected year-ahead earnings, doesn't seem so cheap at 18. But relative to the company's long-term growth rate, it's quite reasonable. In fact, the stock is trading at its lowest valuations in more than a decade.

"And ADP's balance sheet has never been stronger. Management's confidence in the company's future recently prompted them to up the stock's payout by 26%. We see good things ahead for ADP as well.

"ADP has demonstrated a record of maximizing shareholder value. For instance, the company has a history of using part of its cash flow generation to repurchase its own stock. In the first quarter the company repurchased approximately 5.8 million shares, and it's likely to continue to buy back shares in the future."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

For the first time Monday I heard John McCain comparing Barack Obama to Jimmy Carter. I had heard this before in other arenas, but not from McCain. I guess that despite these two presidential candidates pledging to the American people to bring change and resist politics as usual, they are both, as usual as one could get.

Obama is being shaped by the pressures of running for office and to believe otherwise is delusional. I suppose one has to have hope but the effects of the campaign are becoming clear. Obama has been painting McCain as an extension of Bush, which is nonsense, and now in a typical tit-for-tat response, McCain is filling the air with Carter references.

Both McCain and Obama are wrong in their assessments of their opponents and they are becoming commoners to resort to the bottom of the barrel campaign techniques used in every campaign for most of our nation's proud history. Obama gave up the high ground too easily and McCain has decided he can sling mud with the best of them.

Today started out as one of those positive days again as the investment climate appeared to be getting better. Then the unemployment data came out, and frankly it wasn't really as bad as one would expect. But shortly after 10:00 AM, we saw profit takers come into the market. In fact, even oil traders ran oil up after shorts covered after a good week of selling Texas Tea; oil closed up $3.82 at $116.34.

Below are the unofficial closing levels for major US index levels:

• DJIA 13,051.36 (+41.36; +0.32%)
• S&P500 1,413.96 (+4.62; +0.33%)
• NASDAQ 2,476.14 (-4.57; -0.18%)
• 10YR-TBond 3.845% (+0.096)

Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) was a winner with shares up almost 5% at $82.25 in the last minutes of the day. The agricultural nutrients supplier beat earnings, and this gave some pause to the selling in the potash and fertilizer stock selling that had been seen this week.

Next week is sure to be filled with fun and volatile market conditions. The highlight will be the Fed decision on key rates, due on Wednesday, April 30, following a two-day meeting. Anytime the Fed has the floor, the markets listen. Tuesday and Wednesday will be filled with speculation up until the time of the announcement of a cut or pause.

There are many possible outcomes for this meeting, as we have seen a substantial change in investor sentiment regarding the potential need for further rate cuts. The buzz on the street is for a cut of 25 basis points and then a wait-and-see attitude from there. I think that is the most likely direction.

There has been a great deal of concern that all the recent rate cuts have not provided the benefit to consumers the economy needs. Clearly, there is a fatty clog within our financial circulatory system. Traditionally, the Fed likes to see how its actions trickle into the economy before it continues too far down one path, which would argue for a pause now. Plus, the Fed does not want to run out of ammunition by cutting rates too far too fast. But there is no question that we are dealing with a more aggressive Fed than we have seen in decades, so I think we will see another small rate cut.

Merrill Lynch downgraded PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) from "buy" to "sell," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Credit Suisse upgraded Mastercard (NYSE: MA) from "underperform" to "neutral."

Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) was raised to "overweight" from "neutral" at JP Morgan, according to 24/7 Wall St. The website also reports that Automatic Data (NYSE:ADP) was downgraded to neutral" from "buy" at Banc of America.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The small-cap bank sector, Waste Connections, Warnaco Group and Intersections were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Lehman upgraded the small-cap bank sector to Neutral from Negative as they expect the group to benefit from the decline in short-term interest rates and the steeping yield curve. The firm upgraded Associated Banc-Corp (NASDAQ: ASBC), Pacific Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: PCBC) and Westpac Banking Corp (NYSE: WBK) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  
• Friedman Billings added Waste Connections (NYSE: WCN) to its Top Picks list. The firm believes the company can outperform the group and overall market in an economic downturn.
  
• Warnaco Group (NASDAQ: WRNC) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan on valuation and growth potential.
  
• JMP Securities' checks indicate that Intersections (NASDAQ: INTX) is on track to meet EPS expectations for the quarter and is well positioned to beat their 2008 EPS estimate of 80c. The firm raised shares to Strong Buy from Outperform.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Best Buy Incorporated (NYSE: BBY) and AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) were upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James.
  
• The firm also upgraded shares of CBRL Group (NASDAQ: CBRL) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) and Plexus Corp (NASDAQ: PLXS) to Overweight from Neutral.
  
• Bear Stearns raised MFA Mortgage Investments (NYSE: MFA) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
  
• Goldman added Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP) to its Conviction Buy List.

Commenting on the market's volatility, Kelley Wright says, "Damn the torpedoes and full steam ahead." He explains, "These events are what create value and have provided us with opportunity over the years to acquire outstanding companies at excellent price/yield levels. I suspect this time will be no different. Hang in there; this too shall pass."

In his Investment Quality Trends, Kelley Wright select stocks based on quality and yield. In his latest update, he says, "Whenever liquidity, the lifeblood of any market, is compromised, things can get ugly right damn skippy."

However, he remains optimistic for the long-term. He notes, "Fundamental measures of value are fundamental for a reason; they don't change with the whims of the day. The markets are a self-regulating mechanism that restores order when excess exceeds a sustainable level."

Meanwhile, he notes that he continues to recommend several blue chip equity. He says, "We have been long Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) in our model portfolio since 2003, when the stock traded in the high teens. We buy more every time it falls into our undervalued category, such as now. With the U.S. dollar under pressure, it makes even more sense."

The advisor also likes Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP). He notes, "ADP is undervalued by our proprietary measures, has an S&P earnings and dividend quality ranking of A-plus, has had at least 10% annual dividend growth for the past 12 years and has a 55% or better return on equity."

In addition, he sees value in Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL). He explains, :The stock also has a quality ranking of A-plus. It has also shown 10% annual dividend growth over the past 12 years. If things turn ugly, this stock should hold up nicely."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.

If you earn a paycheck, chances are you know ADP. Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NYSE: ADP) has a veritable lock on payroll processing contracts both in the U.S. and increasingly abroad.

Across the board, its 3Q 2007 numbers are up. With annual revenues of $7 billion, ADP has over half a million customers, some of them huge corporations. Revenue was up 14% to $2.2 billion or $.65 EPS, net earnings were up 16%. The company has close to $3 billion cash on hand, even after buying back $945 million worth of its stock thus far this year. At twice the size of its nearest competitor, ADP has a much lower than industry average P/E, 16.88, and EPS at least double that of its nearest competitor. It has built a wide moat around itself to make it difficult for competitors to enter the industry. At its recent close of $48.92, the stock is still quite affordable, and pays a quarterly dividend of $.23. All analysts ratings are upgrades on this stock this spring. Take a look at this one while it's still within budget.

ADP posted good 3Q numbers through both acquisition and organic growth. This quarter, ADP acquired outright Intuit's outsourced payroll business, which generated $12 million in revenue for ADP. ADP also sold Sandy Corporation, realizing $6.9 million in after tax profits. Likewise, ADP spun off its brokerage services unit in order to focus on its core business, payroll processing which was up 8% by volume in the US, with domestic revenue growth of 12%. New business grew 13% domestically and 12% worldwide. Post payroll processing revenue grew a whopping 23%.

More importantly, ADP expects this growth trend to continue into a very strong 4Q. ADP management has revised its FY guidance upwards to reflect these strong numbers. Revenue growth is now forecast at 13% and EPS will be at the high end of the range of $1.79-$1.83, a growth forecast of 20-23%. This is not a cyclical stock, nor a company with a complicated business model, nor does it market a niche product. Everybody needs a paycheck, and for the most part, those paychecks are cut by ADP. Investing in ADP may help take the sting out of all those deductions.

Jim Cramer came onto MAD MONEY tonight saying he thinks that Total Systems Services Inc. (NYSE: TSS) is one that can be taken over next in a sector and $40 would be a fair price based on Alliance Data prices. Synovus Financial Corp. (NYSE: SNV) is the parent and Third Point is now being an activist investor. The earnings growth of 18% is reason enough to own this. Cramer did note that he is concerned that Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NYSE: ADP) might be acquired first.

Before you trust Cramer, there are some other instances to look at: Alliance Data Systems (NYSE: ADS) was just acquired, First Data Corp. (NYSE: FDC) is going private, and even Bisys Group Inc. (NYSE: BSG) got gobbled up. Keep in mind that some of the premiums in this sector have been small. ADS was nearly a 20% stock jump, but BSG was a horrible low-premium buyout. In making any "buyout projections" you really need to make sure that these stocks are ones you want to own on your own. Picking a company for a buyout just "for the speculation of a buyout" is a strategy that can be more than painful regardless of how nutty private equity deals get.

Numbers are Actual vs. Estimate

Excellent Reports

• InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ: IACI) 67c vs. 53c
• Retailing revenue increased to offset a lower price point average, and a higher average return rate. International revenue increased slightly, but profits were hurt by higher operating expenses. Ticketing volume increased as ticket sales rose 4% on 7% higher overall revenue per ticket.
  

• National-OilWell Varco Inc (NYSE: NOV) $1.35 vs. $1.06
• High energy prices stirred demand for drilling equipment which created a backlog of capital equipment orders for the Rig Technology segment.
  

• Electronic Data Systems Corporation (NYSE: EDS) 47c vs. 36c
• "On balance," said chairman and CEO Mike Jordan, "This was the strongest quarter... since I joined the company in 2003." Performance was driven by $7.6B in fourth quarter contracts, up 43% from the previous year.

Every year, Forbes puts together a list of the 400 Best Big Companies. The selections are based on a screen of 1,000 companies and take into consideration stock market returns, growth in EPS, and debt-to-equity ratios.

Some of the companies really don't belong:

Lowe's. (NYSE:LOW) Revenue and earning have been fairly flat the last four quarters after years of growth. Over the last year, the stock is down over 7%, more than larger rival Home Depot (NYSE:HD). The S&P is up about 12% over the same period.

Sprint/Nextel. (NYSE:S) The company's five year total return is only 2.2%. Sprint's stock has fallen almost 20% over the last year, while Verizon's is up about 22% (NYSE:VZ).

3M. (NYSE:MMM) With its stock down 5% over the last two years, the S&P has moved up almost 20%. On a quarter-over-previous quarter basis, revenue and operating income are flat over the last year.

Texas Instruments. (NYSE:TXN) With a five year annual return of -1.6, the stock has gone up only about 5% over the same period. The S&P is up 25% over that time.

Automatic Data Processing. (NASDAQ:ADP). The company's stock is off almost 15% over the last five years. The last year's quarter-over-previous-quarter for revenue and operating income is mediocre, at best.

Bed Bath and Beyond. (NYSE:BBBY) The stock is down over 5% over the last two years. And, very little revenue growth in the last year.

Molex. (NASDAQ:MOLX). The stock is price is flat over the last five years. In October, the company announced poor results and a lackluster forecast.

Analog Devices. (NYSE:ADI). Stock is off 30% over five years. Over the last three months, stock has been downgraded by Bernstein, HSBC, and Robert W. Baird.

Amdocs. (NYSE:DOX). Flat stock over the last five years. The company recently guided below Wall St. expectations.