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Analyst initiations: AA, ATI, CRM, LAMR and RIGL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Metals and Mining sector, Lamar Advertising and Rigel Pharmaceuticals were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Banc of America initiated the Metals and Mining sector with an Equal Weight rating and believes investors should take a selective approach to stocks in the group. The firm initiated Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and RTI International Metals (NYSE: RTI) with Buy ratings and a $44 target and $41 target, and started Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI), Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX) and Titanium Metals (NYSE: TIE) with Neutral ratings and a $64 target, $58 target and $12 target, respectively.
  • Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ: LAMR) was initiated at Caris with an Above Average rating and $40 target. Caris is positive on the company's North American focus and exposure to the aggressive deployment of digital boards.
  • Stanford believes Rigel Pharma's (NASDAQ: RIGL) lead drug R788 has the potential to be the first oral drug for rheumatoid arthritis and expects clinical news flow and partnerships to serve as catalysts. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $30 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Thomas Weisel assumed Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) with an Overweight rating and $90 target.
  • International Flavors (NYSE: IFF) was initiated at Lehman with an Underweight rating.
  • JP Morgan started Ares Capital (NASDAQ: ARCC) with an Underweight rating.

Earnings highlights: Citigroup, eBay, IBM, Merrill Lynch, Microsoft and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

For more highlights from this week, see: Google, Intel, JPMorgan, Coca-Cola, Nokia and others

The earnings crunch continues next week. Among companies scheduled to report are Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Texas Intruments (NYSE: TXN), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), Wachovia (NYSE: WB), Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Hershey (NYSE: HSY), and Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Allegheny Technologies (ATI): Price defines bullish 'flag' formation

Allegheny Technologies (NYSE: ATI) produces specialty metals. Products include titanium and titanium alloys, nickel-based alloys and superalloys, stainless and specialty steels, tungsten materials, zirconium, hafnium and niobium. The steels, the nickel alloys and the titanium alloys are offered as plate, sheet, engineered strip, precision rolled strip, and grain-oriented electrical products. The company also offers forgings and castings. Its biggest customers are in the aerospace, chemical process, and oil and gas industries.

Investors were pleased earlier in the week, when Allegheny issued upside EPS guidance for Q2. Management said it expected $1.65-$1.67, up from its earlier view that earnings would be somewhat higher than the $1.40 per share of Q1. The Street had been looking for $1.53. The CEO noted that the firm's risk management programs were reducing the impact of volatile input costs.

Continue reading Allegheny Technologies (ATI): Price defines bullish 'flag' formation

Allegheny Tech (ATI) jumps on takeover rumors

ATI logoAllegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) shares are trading higher today as investors pounce on speculation that ATI may be a takeover target. One possible company mentioned as a suitor for ATI is US Steel (NYSE: X). If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ATI.

After hitting a one-year high of $119.7 last April, the stock hit a one-year low of $59.00 in January. ATI opened this morning at $79.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $79.00 and a high of $84.22. As of 1:15, ATI is trading at $83.39, up $3.39 (4.3%). The chart for ATI looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

Continue reading Allegheny Tech (ATI) jumps on takeover rumors

Analyst upgrades: SNP, SVR and ATI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: China Petroleum & Chemical, Syniverse and Allegheny Tech were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (NYSE: SNP) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent sell-off.
  • ThinkEquity upgraded Syniverse Holdings Inc (NYSE: SVR) to Buy from Accumulate citing growth from further price reductions and adoption of new technologies that will drive transaction volumes.
  • Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (NYSE: ATI) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.The firm upgraded Allegheny based on valuation, low stainless steel inventories, and nickel price stabilization.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Earnings highlights: Yahoo!, Google, Amazon, Countrywide, Merck, UBS and others

The earnings crunch is in full swing, and here are a few of the highlights of this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

For additional BloggingStocks earnings highlights, see Exxon, Boeing, Halliburton, Sony, UPS, Honda, and others and McDonald's, Kraft, P&G, Verizon, MasterCard, 3M, and others.

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Yahoo!, Google, Amazon, Countrywide, Merck, UBS and others

Allegheny Technologies has bad quarter, good year

Investors were pleased with the earnings news from specialty metals manufacturer Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (NYSE: ATI). They bid the stock up some 6% Tuesday, January 29 despite the fact that shipments and operating profits in 4Q2007 slipped and are expected to continue to be soft in 1Q2008.

For the year, Allegheny Technologies posted record sales of $5.45 billion, up 10%. Net income shot up 30% to a record $747 million. Cash flow increased by $121 million so that the company has more cash than debt, operating profit increased by 23%, EPS hit $7.26, and international sales topped $1.5 billion, another record. As a result, Allegheny Technologies initiated a half-billion dollar stock buy-back program and raised the dividend for the third straight year.

Overall, the picture looks good, but there are some negatives. Raw material costs continue to increase. Demand for stainless steel products was "extraordinarily weak," offset in part by stronger demand for tungsten and tungsten carbide products. Demand remains strong in the commercial aerospace and defense segments which results in strong demand for titanium based products for aircraft frames. Supply chain uncertainties with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, however, may curtail operating profits in that segment.

Given its diverse product offerings, its expanding joint centure in China, Allegheny Technologies appears able to withstand whatever the U.S. economy will do in the coming months.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Playing to Win

NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA:) is a company that seeks to win the game by constantly staying ahead of its competitors. One of the big three companies, along with Advanced Micro Devices' ATI Products and Technologies Division (NYSE:AMD) and Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) that sell highly advanced graphics microchips for computing applications of all types, NVIDIA is unique among them because it puts its primary focus on research and development -- even outsourcing production -- to make sure that in a world where technical advancement moves at the speed of light, it remains the most innovative of an innovative trio.

So while both Intel and AMD's ATI Division maintain a good competitive position against NVIDIA's GeForce chips in the desktop market -- although NVIDIA is still leading there too -- the company blows its competition away in other categories. For example, the company controls 60% of the market for notebook computers, makes the chip used in the new Playstation 3, and, in January of 2007, acquired a company that will make it easier to use its chips in a variety of handheld devices, including PDAs and smartphones. There are even applications for its products in unexpected fields, like industrial design, film production, and medical imaging.

Continue reading NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Playing to Win

Allegheny Technologies (ATI): Steeled for future growth

The other day, Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI), the largest stainless steel producer in the U.S., experienced a steep decline in share price. This company produces not just stainless steel but also titanium and other materials, as well as develops engineered products used in cutting tools and diecasting, usually to be used in the aerospace, automotive, and appliance sectors.

When the investor sees a fall in share price, there are two conclusions. Sometimes these types of price drops are warranted; sometimes they scream to the savvy investor: opportunity! This is a case of the latter. The reason for the drop the other day was a company report that stainless steel and nickel prices were volatile and falling, which then negatively impacted its stainless steel segment. This report prompted share prices to fall by $10 -- well beyond what I feel was warranted.

In addition to falling prices, ATI's prospects were dampened recently when Boeing announced that it would deliver its Dreamliner 787 planes six months later than expected. Each plane required 250 THOUSAND pounds of nickel, which ATI was going to supply, so this is a blow. Provided this delay doesn't get extended, I don't see it affecting ATI in the long turn. The management is solid, and demand for its specialty metal product isn't going away.


Continue reading Allegheny Technologies (ATI): Steeled for future growth

Allegheny Tech (ATI) plunges after cutting forecast

ATI logoAllegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) is plunging today after the company cut its 2007 forecast this morning, citing weak demand for stainless sheet steel. This is one example of an industrial goods manufacturer getting caught as the credit crunch potentially slows down economic expansion. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on ATI.

After hitting a one-year high of $119.70 in April, the stock has been volatile over the past few months. This morning, ATI opened at $97.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $92.80 and a high of $97.54. As of 10:55, ATI is trading at $95.50, down $11.15 (-10.5%). The chart for ATI was bullish and steady before today's dive, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bear-call credit spread above the $115 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in 5 weeks as long as ATI is below $115 at November expiration. Allegheny Tech. would have to rise by more than 20% before we would start to lose money.

ATI has not been above $115 by more than a few cents at a time since April and has shown some resistance around $112 recently. This trade could be risky if the industrial goods market turns around, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the resistance the stock formed around $115 over the past few months, plus the big drop it suffered this morning.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.


Before the bell: ORCL, BEAS, AAPL, MCD, ATI ...

Seems Cramer was right when he said to buy BEA Systems before it gets a bid Monday. Today Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) indeed said it has proposed to buy business software maker BEA Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BEAS) for more than $6.66 billion. If you had listened to Cramer, you could have sold your BEAS shares today 22% higher as indicated by premarket action.

Morgan Stanley upped Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares target price from $150 to $180, saying the "iPhone will drive more ancillary revenue than it previously modeled." AAPL shares are up nearly half a percent in premarket trading.

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) has revised its third quarter earnings to 89 cents per share (83 cents from continuing operations and a gain of 6 cents a share) as momentum continues. The fast food chain has posted a 5.9% climb in September global same-store sales. Sales for its restaurants worldwide rose 11.5% in the month. European same-store sales grew 5.7% in the month.

Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) warned its earnings will be lower than expected in the second half of the year, and forecast full-year earnings well below Wall Street estimates. Soft demand for standard stainless sheet was cited as the reason. Third-quarter earnings will range between $1.85 and $1.88 per share, the company said, while Wall Street expected $1.96 per share. No doubt shares could come under pressure.

Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) shares are down 1.3% in premarket trading after Enskilda downgraded Nokia to Hold from Buy, saying it believes strong third-quarter results are already priced in the shares.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) sold nearly 2 1/2 times the number of cars it sold in India in the same period last year, despite a sharp rise in interest rates. GM's market share in India has grown to 3.6%, topping Ford Motor Co.'s (NYSE: F).

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) yesterday said it is cutting positions at its investment banking division after suffering Wall Street's biggest slump in the leveraged loan market.

Another toy recall was announced yesterday, this time hitting J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) and shares closed down nearly 7%. More than 90,000 children's products, most imported by J.C. Penney are being recalled for containing dangerous levels of lead.

10 years to $1 billion: Step 10, Allegheny Technologies (ATI)

Well, here we are. In our fantasy, self-kicking portfolio that just-so-happened to invest 100% in each year's best-performing stock, we're at the half-billion mark. Just think how much better off we'd be if our 10-year period began in 1988 and capped off with our 2587% rally in Qualcomm! I guess we'll have to settle for a measly $1 billion.... J.K. Rowling is somehow managing to live off a similar fortune.

Here's a review of all the previous steps we took to get to $1 billion:

1997: Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO)
1998: Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN)
1999: Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM)
2000: Laboratory Corp. of America (NYSE: LH)
2001: NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA)
2002: MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WHR)
2003: Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM)
2004: Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD)
2005: SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK)

In 2006, the top stock was Akamai Technologies (again!), but for the sake of variety, we'll look at the first runner-up, Pittsburgh-based steel company Allegheny Technologies (NYSE: ATI). Last year, the stock was in the news after paying $17 million to acquire Garryson Limited from Elliott Industries. At the beginning of 2006, ATI was trading at $36.40. With the dollars in our portfolio, we purchased 12,332,536 shares to hold on to through the end of the year.

Allegheny Technologies ATI's performance in 2006

Outperformance in the base-metals sector and a strong final quarter helped lift ATI shares to $90.68, closing 2006 with a 149% gain. Lo and behold, our fantasy portfolio stood at $1,118,314,364. More than $1 billion in just 10 years.

As I said at the beginning of this exercise, it's an incredible stroke of good fortune to invest in the best-performing stock of a single year, let alone for 10 years running. So while nothing is impossible, the actions performed by this portfolio come pretty darn close. Still, it's a fun experiment to see that aggressive money management and picture-perfect stock selections can result in massive portfolio growth.

Thanks for reading! Now go figure out what the top stock of 2008 will be and shoot me an email.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Seeking your own fortune? See Georges Yared's 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years

10 years to $1 billion - How it was technically (if not logically) possible
Step 1: Yahoo! (YHOO), 1997
Step 2: Amazon.com (AMZN), 1998
Step 3: Qualcomm (QCOM), 1999
Step 4: LabCorp. of America (LH), 2000
Step 5: NVIDIA (NVDA), 2001
Step 6: MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), 2002
Step 7: Akamai Technologies (AKAM), 2003
Step 8: Sears Holdings (SHLD), 2004
Step 9: SanDisk (SNDK), 2005
Step 10: Allegheny Technologies (ATI), 2006

Allegheny Technologies is on a roll

Specialty metals producer Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) is in the very enviable position of having record demand for its products despite rising prices averaging 4-39% for those same products. First off, the stock is up almost 30% for the year, opening the year at $88.45, and closing on July 13 at $114.97, up $.67. Analysts consider $125 to be a fair target, so there is still plenty of movement left in the stock. Its P/E of 16.85 is significantly below industry average, while its 6.47 EPS is very much above industry average. Return on stockholders equity is above 50%, and the company has half a billion dollars on hand in case it likes the look of other companies to acquire.

Allegheny Technologies recently posted record quarterly profits for 1Q 2007. Sales increased 32% to $1.37 billion. Net income increased a whopping 86% to $198 million, about $1.92 per share, almost double the net income of 1Q 2006. Demand for its higher priced titanium-based products has reached record levels in the aerospace and defense industries. Demand of what CEO L. Patrick Hassey terms "exotic alloys" is at a record level. ATI is building additional capacity to service this demand, which shows no signs of abating, despite significant increases in the costs of raw metal materials. ATI has instituted cost containment measures to help counteract the hike in raw material prices.

ATI consists of three main product divisions. High Performance Metals is the largest division and deals primarily with titanium related metals used in aircraft construction. Despite capacity expansion, this division is facing record backlog orders to satisfy demand. Sales in this division increased 35% to $477 million for 1Q 2007. Sales in the Flat-Rolled Products division increased 20.4% for an operating profit of $160 million, despite a noticeable decline in shipments of commodity stainless sheet metals. The Engineered Products division deals with tungsten-related products. ATI is currently expanding capacity for this division and hopes to increase production significantly by the end of 2Q 2007. ATI posted revenues in excess of $5 billion for the most recent four quarters, and expects that figure to increase as 2Q 2007 figures surpass record levels set in 1Q 2007. There does not seem to be a downside to this stock at this time.

Flying high: Investing in 'composite' metals

"At first glance, the upcoming Airbus A380 and the Boeing 787 Dreamliner planes look much like existing commercial models – but nothing could be further from the truth," says energy and resource industry expert Elliott Gue.

In Personal Finance, the editor notes, "Both are 20% to 30% more fuel efficient than any planes currently flying, due largely to lightweight composite materials."

Composites, he notes, are formed from two dissimilar materials -- usually a reinforcing fiber and an adhesive epoxy or resin, with carbon-fiber composite being the most commonly used in aircraft construction.

And it's not just airplanes that use these advanced materials; Gue observes, "Wind-power blades, oil rigs and sporting equipment all use high-strength, space-age materials. That spells soaring demand and solid growth for a handful of companies involved in their manufacture."

For those looking to invest in the "composite" industry, the advisor offers a trio of ideas. First is Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), the world's largest producer of "prepregs" for the aerospace industry. Prepregs, he explains, are woven carbon-fiber sheets that when chilled remain flexible and can be bent to shape or pressed into molds.

Gue says, "Outside aerospace, the wind power industry is fast becoming Hexcel's most important source of revenues. In fact, wind power is the company's fastest-growing major source of revenue; Hexcel projects at least mid-teens growth from that line this year.

Continue reading Flying high: Investing in 'composite' metals

Cramer loves Allegheny and slaps Lee Scott of Wal-Mart

On today's STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Cramer said The Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR) is a play. With Kroger at $29 after a B of A upgrade said it could beat for years to come. The case against Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is so fabulous that everyone wants in. He commented that when Lee Scott is finally dethroned, this wouldn't necessarily happen, but now the store is not what it once was. Lee Scott was one of 24/7 Wall St.'s TOP CEO's THAT HAVE TO GO from December.

Cramer adores Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE:ATI). He said this one is in the sweet spot and it is positioned to work every single aspect of the economy and its metal will stand up to corrosive effects of ethanol.

If you want to know why Cramer was out Friday night, it looks like he fractured his foot.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

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