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Boeing (NYSE: BA) has been furiously negotiating with its machinist's union to avoid a strike vote by them that could come as early as September 3. Labor's greatest concerns is that Boeing has made a lot of money over the past several years, and workers have seen very little benefit from that.

According to Bloomberg, "The union says workers haven't had raises, except for cost-of-living increases, since 2004 and deserve to share in Boeing's $10.7 billion in profit since then." Boeing is taking the standard large company position: It cannot afford to sharply increase benefits without putting itself in jeopardy if its business slows.

Boeing might want to sharpen its pencil. A strike could cost it another delay for the launch of its new Dreamliner. It has already pushed back that date three times. Airline customers are so upset that some of them have asked for compensation. More delays could up the request for "damages" from carriers who still need the more fuel-efficient airplane.

The winner in a Boeing strike will probably be Airbus. It has had delays of some of its own products, including its huge A380 jumbo jet. But, most of those issues seem to be behind the European company. If Boeing can't deliver planes, Airbus can pick up market share.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

BusinessWeek reports that Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) has repeated its threat not to bid on the $35 billion competition to supply an airborne refueling tanker to the Air Force. This is a competition that pits a Republican presidential candidate and his lobbyist former finance chair on the dole of a French aircraft company and its Alabama partner against the future prospects of a Democratically controlled Congress and White House that would tend to favor Boeing -- which has many workers in Washington state.

By threatening not to bid, Boeing is taking many big risks. The Air Force may decide to keep the terms of the competition the same -- bids due October 1 -- and contract wrap up before New Year's Day. If Boeing does not bid and the competition proceeds, EADS, parent of Airbus, and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) -- with many of its workers in the Republican-leaning Alabama -- would win the bid uncontested. If the Air Force extends the process another four months -- which Boeing would prefer -- there is a chance that the Air Force would still end up choosing the French company.

But Boeing is gambling that the odds of a more favorable outcome are greater if it threatens not to bid. Boeing thinks that Congress will not want only one bid for the Tanker and that Congress and the White House are likely to be controlled by the Democratic party in January. With the French lobbyist-backed candidate in the Senate minority, Boeing will be in a better position to shape the Tanker competition in a way that favors its victory.

Boeing (NYSE: BA) lost its bid for the new Air Force tanker to Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC). The aircraft builder was able to get the process re-opened and now has a shot at getting the business that was awarded to Northrop.

Winning another chance at the big contract is not enough. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Boeing Co. said it is inclined to bail out of its effort to win a $40 billion contract to build aerial refueling tankers for the U.S. Air Force unless the Pentagon agrees to give it a total of six months to submit a new bid."

Boeing claims that it will take a long time to figure out how to configure one of its airplanes to haul the amount of jet fuel required by the Air Force.

The request is bogus. Boeing has been through the bidding process for the tanker once before. The idea that the company did not understand the specifications is remarkable.

Boeing may be trying to gain time to shave some of its costs off the project so that it can bring the price of its bid down. It should have done that in the first round. There is no reason it should get that additional time.

It is no wonder Northrop got the original approval, and it is likely to get it again in this round.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Airlines globally could lose $6.1 billion in 2008, on soaring oil prices and financial market dislocation, the head of the International Air Transport Association said, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday (subscription required).

Giovanni Bisignani, managing director of the IATA, which represents 230 airlines, called the sector "a fragile industry in a crisis" and that it's "bracing for more situations of airlines collapsing," due to high fuel prices and lower revenue, The Journal reported. Further, the air travel slowdown, once thought to be contained to developed nations, has spread to global air travel's plum: Asia, he added.

Airline slowdown could hurt Boeing, Airbus

Stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Thursday if the Asian hemisphere is slowing, to go along with sluggish revenue statistics in Europe and the United States, the slowdown "would have wide implications, not just for airlines, but for airplane manufacturers Boeing and Airbus."

"Further consolidation globally, was a given, particularly in nations like India, which had too many airlines even before the global economy slowed, but the concern now is that national carriers will postpone or cancel plane orders," Bauer said. "From a U.S. perspective, that could mean bad news for Boeing. And what's bad news for Boeing is bad news for the U.S economy. Airplane sales have been one of the U.S. economy's few bright spots." [Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any airline or airplane manufacturer. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR).]

Airlines may not get the Boeing (NYSE: BA) Dreamliner on its new revised schedule after all. The plane has been delayed three times because of manufacturing and supplier glitches. If Boeing has problems with one of its unions, it might have to push back the launch date again. Some airlines are already asking Boeing for compensation for the late deliveries.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "With its aircraft order books so full that some customers must wait as long as five years for deliveries, Boeing can ill afford a strike -- especially one that could further delay the rollout of its new 787 Dreamliner jet."

At the center of the negotiations are pay and pensions, making them little different from most such talks. But the solution for both sides could involve an incentive.

Boeing does not want to be faced with a strike that could hurt its revenue. The unions want a bigger piece of Boeing's sales pie. Boeing should return to the bargaining table with a simple proposal. If its new jets are delivered on time, wages will go up at a rate close to the union's requests. If not, the increases will be lower.

Boeing could set up a partnership with its labor force driven by the common goal of product launches. That is better than a strike that does neither the union nor Boeing any good.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Astronics Corporation (NASDAQ: ATRO) designs and manufactures electrical power and lighting systems for the aerospace industry. Products generate electricity for aircraft cabins and airframes and provide both interior and external lighting. Customers include manufacturers of business jets, military aircraft, missiles and commercial transports. The company's control panels are also used in a variety of military ground vehicles. Boeing (NYSE: BA), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) are among the firm's major clients. Astronics ranked first on the Fortune Small Business Magazine 2008 list of America's 100 fastest-growing small public companies.

The firm surprised the Street earlier in the month, when it reported Q2 EPS of 60 cents and revenues of $47.9 million. Analysts had been looking for 31 cents and $42.1 million. Management also guided FY08 revenues to $175-$185 million, versus Street consensus of $169.49 million. The CEO commented, "While we set an all-time record for shipments in the quarter, the level of orders received was even stronger." Boenning & Scattergood subsequently reiterated its "market outperform" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $30.

As I suspected, Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) was trying to exert pressure to change the terms of the competition when it signaled this week that it might withdraw from the bidding for the $35 billion Air Force contract for airborne refueling tankers. BusinessWeek reports that Boeing wants the Air Force to delay the date for submitting the proposal and to change the specifications to favor Boeing's smaller modified 767.

BusinessWeek also reveals that the competition is tied in with this November's election. John McCain's former finance committee chair, Tom Loeffler, is a lobbyist for EADS, parent of France's Airbus, which has joined with Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) in a bid for the tanker. In June, the General Accounting Office (GAO) agreed with Boeing that the February award to Loeffler's client had process irregularities. So the Air Force announced it would rebid, but it did so in a way that -- if my hunch is correct -- Boeing believes will put Loeffler's French client at a big advantage.

As BusinessWeek points out, if the Air Force sticks with its current schedule and specifications, it will help McCain win Republican-dominated Alabama in November, which is where Northrop would build the modified A330 that it would deliver to the Air Force if it wins the competition. Democratic Washington would benefit if Boeing won the competition.

Reuters reports that Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) is signaling that it may not submit a bid for the $35 billion Air Force contract for Tankers -- airborne refueling vehicles. Is Boeing serious about not submitting a bid or is it using its leverage to get the Air Force to revise the bidding process to create a more level playing field?

The tanker contract has a long history. The Air Force awarded it this February to EADS, parent of Airbus, and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC). Boeing protested the award citing errors in the way the process was run. The General Accounting Office (GAO) sided with Boeing. And the Air Force announced that it would rebid the contract. But many thought that the rebidding process favored the French company.

Now Boeing is considering not submitting a bid. If Boeing ends up not bidding, it will be an embarrassment for the Air Force, which was bending over backwards to change the specifications to keep Airbus and Northrop in the process so there would be two bidders. Or it might have been to satisfy Thomas Loeffler, an EADS lobbyist who headed up John McCain's finance committee. Regardless of why it was done, if Boeing doesn't bid, the Air Force will be in a tight spot.

Investors and readers are probably aware of production snags that have delayed two next-generation airplanes, Airbus' A380 Superjumbo and Boeing's 787 Dreamliner.

But now there's word of production delays for two existing aircraft, Airbus's A330 and Boeing's 777.

A shortage of seats, toilets, and galleys is slowing down A330 and 777 assembly lines, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday (subscription required). Managers at the world's two rival commercial aviation giants suggest the snags could affect this year's financial results, but neither company has issued an earnings warning.

Shares of Boeing (NYSE: BA) gained $1.87 to $66.56, while shares of Airbus' parent EADS rose 1.27 euros to 14.85 euros on the Paris Exchange, in Friday afternoon trading.

Contractor ramp-up issues

For Boeing and Airbus, the crux of the problem stems from the relatively small size of the contractors producing equipment such as jetliner galleys, toilets and business-class seats, The Journal reported. Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Friday the problem Boeing and Airbus face is "an upside problem," but a problem nonetheless.

"It's called the problem of success. Jetliner orders and deliveries have risen more than 40% in five years and contractors are straining to keep up," Bauer said. "It had to happen sooner or later, because it's hard for contractors to in some cases double production of a part in two or three years." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing or Airbus.

It is remarkably hard to believe that Boeing's (NYSE: BA) huge new airplane launch could be held back due to lack of seats and toilets. Welcome to the world of poor planning.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Boeing and Airbus are both facing "a shortage of less-advanced equipment such as seats, toilets and galleys that is slowing down their assembly lines."

Boeing could set up its plane like subway cars and dispense with seats by having customers stand. The FAA is not likely to go along with that.

Boeing has solved most of the problems of getting complex components for its plane, but these mundane pieces of equipment could delay deliveries and cost Boeing large amounts of revenue.

Shoddy planning has been the rule of he day at Boeing. That problem is getting worse, even in the toilet department.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Stock futures were trading down as Fannie Mae posted its fourth straight quarterly loss. Investors were awaiting word from a government report on worker productivity to see if there is any sign of an economic rebound. Those figures, though, proved disappointing.

Bloomberg News reported that worker productivity in the U.S. grew at a lower-than-expected rate in the second quarter as employers cut jobs to weather the jump in raw-material expenses. "Employers eliminated 165,000 jobs from April through June to shore up profits, and still managed to get more output with fewer workers," the news service says. "Gains in productivity help lower inflation and bolster the Federal Reserve's forecast that prices will moderate."

Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) posted its fourth straight quarterly loss and slashed its dividend. The second-quarter net loss was $2.3 billion, or $2.54 a share. Excluding one-time items, the loss was $2.51 a share, compared with the 72-cent average estimate of 10 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Shares tumbled more than 12% in pre-market trading.

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Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX at 21.13; 10-day moving average is 22.52.

Boeing (NYSE: BA) is recently up 20 cents to $64.80. Goldman Sachs says "Removing from the conviction sell list on crude pullback." BA September option implied volatility of 33 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

American International (NYSE: AIG) is scheduled to report Q3 EPS after the market close today. Societe Generale started AIG at Sell. AIG August option implied volatility is at 99, September is at 69; above its 26-week average of 51 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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Airlines Sell Frequent-Flier Miles for Fast Cash, Travelers Be Wary
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