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After the implosion of IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) and news of the deterioration of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) last week, there's bound to be a certain level of trepidation as the earnings crunch begins this coming week and many big financial companies report. Here's a look at what Wall Street was expecting (see The week in preview: Expectations as the earnings crunch begins for expectations of other reporting companies.)

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting the following of companies to report lower earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM): 44 cents EPS (-63.3%) on sales of $16.4 billion (-13.2%)
• Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA): 51 cents EPS (-59.2%) on sales of $680.2 million (-7.3%)
• Zions Bancorp. (NYSE: ZION): 75 cents EPS (-47.6%) on sales of $627.3. million (+2.7%)
• Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NYSE: HBAN): 23 cents EPS (-32.4%) on sales of $617.1 million (+50.7%)
• Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF): $1.31 EPS (-30.7%) on sales of $4.4 billion (+7.8%)
• Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC): 50 cents EPS (-25.4%) on sales of $10.7 billion (+7.7%)
• M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB): $1.50 EPS (-23.1%) on sales of $756.6 million (+1.6%)
• BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT): 69 cents EPS (-16.9%) on sales of $1.8 billion (+5.9%)
• U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB): 60 cents EPS (-7.7%) on sales of $3.8 billion (+8.3%)
• PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: PNC): $1.16 EPS (-7.2%) on sales of $1.9 billion (+8.5%)

A bank stock? In this market? Indeed preferred bank plays exist, with several community banks scoring high on that list. But it's understandable if you may want to avoid the investment banks for awhile.

Still, there are selected investment/commercial banks with superior business models, and among these the Bank of New York Mellon is worth a review.

Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BNY) is one of the world's leading asset management and corporate trust services banks, with an astounding $20 trillion in assets under custody and more than $1 trillion of assets under management.

In general, analysts expect BK's merger-adjusted revenue to rise about 8-10% in F2008, and 10-12% in F2009. Analysts also expect BK's merger with Pittsburgh-based Mellon Financial to enhance the company's business mix.

Further, the Bank of New York has also done a good job restricting non-merger expense growth, and it could also benefit as several competitors more-involved in the subprime mortgage sector struggle with credit-related issues. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for BK are $2.99/$3.41.

The quarter has hardly begun and, with analysts and investors watching nervously, the earnings crunch is about to begin anew. The following 11 big banks are among companies reporting results the week of April 14 to April 18.

These three are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to be the the top performers in the first quarter, based on earnings growth from the same period of last year:

• State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT): 39%
• Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK): 22%
• Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ: NTRS): 13%

These also happen to be three of the four forecast top performers from just before fourth quarter of 2007 results were reported back in January.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Brokers and Asset Managers sector, Pacific Sunwear and Metabasis Therapeutics were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded the Brokers and Asset Management sector to Attractive from Neutral as they believe an inflection point has been reached for stocks with minimal credit exposure, or where exposure is marked to market. Goldman expects the problem to shift to regional banks and specialty finance from brokers. As such, Goldman upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) and NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Wachovia upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation, merchandising improvements, operating efficiencies, favorable product mix, and reductions in underperforming categories.
  
• Rodman & Renshaw raised Metabasis (NASDAQ: MBRX) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation given the potential for MB07803.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• HSBC raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Neutral from Underweight.
  
• UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.

Before the bell: Stocks lower after Alcoa, AMD, ahead of housing data

Nike (NYSE: NKE) unveiled its Olympics 2008 line Monday, its largest effort for the games ever. Nike actually created products in every sport at the games despite not being an official sponsor of the games like its rival Adidas. As for the U.S. team, it will be attired in Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) garb.

If Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was upgraded Monday, today it finds itself on the flip side with a downgrade from Morgan Keegan from Market Perform to Underperform. Ummmm, contrarian is one thing, but I'm not so sure about that one. AAPL shares are down nearly 1.5% in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, according to MarketWatch, Goldman Sachs has upgraded some brokers and asset managers, but is remaining cautious on regional banks, mortgage and specialty finance and REITs. American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and several others all were upgraded to Buy. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and several others were cut to neutral.

Bank of New York (NYSE: BK) is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on April 17.

BK has more than $23 trillion in assets under custody and administration and more than $1.1 trillion in assets under management.

BK call option volume of 5,199 contracts compares to put volume of 10,438 contracts. BK April option implied volatility of 56 is above its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Goldman Sachs, Lehman and TD AmeriTrade were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• UBS downgraded Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to Neutral from Buy. The firm believes liquidity problems and de-leveraging in the capital markets will get worst before they get better; UBS also downgraded Bank of New York (NYSE: BK), State Street (NYSE: STT) and Invesco (NYSE: IVZ) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Following Bear Stearns' (NYSE: BSC) downfall, UBS also downgraded Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) to Neutral from Buy and said the company could be the "next on the list" for the confidence/liquidity crisis by some investors.
  
• TD AmeriTrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) was downgraded to Neutral from buy at UBS and to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings. Friedman Billings downgraded TD Ameritrade citing slowing client activity as well as margin compression.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan cut Portugal Telecom (NYSE: PT) to Underweight from Neutral.
  
• Goldman downgraded Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) and Holly Corp (NYSE: HOC) to Neutral from Buy and removed Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) from its Conviction Buy List.

For more earnings forecasts, see Peter Cohan's Earnings expectations for 10 banks tell a mixed story.

Thomson Financial expects Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) to earn $0.69 when it announces its fourth-quarter results on January 17th. That's up 19% from the same period in 2006 when it earned $0.58.

Bank of New York Mellon is a New York-based bank that operates through three segments: Institutional Services, Private Bank & BNY Asset Management, and Corporate & Other. In the last year, its revenues were $5 billion and its net income totaled $2 billion. Its stock has gained 13% in the last year, and it now trades at a P/E of 19.9.

Bank of New York Mellon consistently beats estimates. In the second quarter of 2007, it beat the estimate by 1.6%, and in the third quarter it beat by 9.8%. My hunch is that it will beat expectations.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Bank of New York Mellon securities.

The earnings of 10 banks expected to report in the next week suggest that while most banks will make money -- four will make more than last year, three will make less -- three others will be unprofitable.

Here are the top performers based on how much more they're expected to make this year than last:

• State Street Corporation +56%
• Bank of New York Mellon Corp. +19%
• Northern Trust +19%
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. +3%

Here are the three that are expected to make less money this year than last:

• M&T Bank Corporation -13%
• U.S. Bancorp -11%
• Wilmington Trust -7%

Consumers are still willing to run their lives based on credit, so says an Associated Press report. Consumer borrowing increased at an annual rate of 7.4% in November compared to an increase of just 1% in October - ah yes, the faux magic of a consumerist Christmas.

The truth of the matter rests in the cause for the rise. Is it because consumers are still confident in their earning potential? The more likely cause is that consumers are running out of funding options, read that -- they're running out of cash.

So why is it that mortgages are getting harder to write but consumer purchases can still be funded with just a signature? Although they're deflating in value, homes still provide significant backing for lenders to lean their bets on whereas credit cards float in the unknown. With bankruptcies at an all time high, are we setting up for the final crash?

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Illinois Tool Works, Perficient and GATX were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW) was initiated with a Neutral rating and $59 target at Banc of America, as they believe the challenging macro environment and tougher international comparisons will impact near-term base revenue growth and margin opportunities.
  
• JMP Securities believes shares of Perficient Inc. (NASDAQ: PRFT) have overreacted to weak 2007 organic growth and expects shares to be driven by an acceleration in growth in combination with accretive acquisitions. The firm initiated Perficient with a Market Outperform rating and $20 target.
  
• GATX Corp. (NYSE: GMT) was initiated with a Neutral rating at SunTrust on valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Credit Suisse initiated Bank of America with a Neutral rating and $48 target and Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB) with an Underperform rating and $35 target.
  
• Goldman initiated Bank of New York (NYSE: BK) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Morgan Stanley started WESCO International (NYSE: WCC) with an Equal Weight rating.

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he offers advice to investors who are just getting started.

If you own a bank stock, you know how brutal the stock market can be. Many are down more than 50% as the subprime mortgage mess continues to shock all investors. But some banks are being punished for being a bank, not for mortgages they don't even own.

Not all banks are the same. Most banks make mortgage loans to several different kinds of buyers for different types of properties: existing homes, new construction, and/or commercial buildings. Or they only make loans to well-qualified buyers, ones with good income and high FICO scores (your credit score). Still others make no mortgages at all, have a diversified revenue stream and are only guilty of being called banks. Finally, there are banks that have a large percentage of their revenues from international lending. Smart investors will look for all of these types and start investing a small amount in several of them, then wait for the rally that will inevitably come.

It looks like the Super SIV roadshow is about ready to start, with the Bank of America apparently taking the lead.

Left unanswered -- at least for the immediate future -- are compelling questions related to the fund's transparency, effectiveness, and cost.

The Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) announced Monday that it will lead efforts by Citigroup (NYSE: C) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) to convince smaller competitors to help finance an $80 billion bailout of the short-term debt market, Bloomberg News reported Monday, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.

With the price of Thanksgiving dinner up 11% this year over last, the Fed won't help consumers because it's confident that inflation -- as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) will range between 1% and 2%. Meanwhile, Washington is happy to create lucrative business deals for Wall Street -- in the form of arrangements to manage and keep records of its Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV) bailout.

What is the Fed smoking? I don't know any personal consumption expenditures that are growing at 1% to 2%. The price of oil has quadrupled since January 2001 to $99.29 a barrel, gasoline prices are up 40% since last year, airfares have more than doubled -- a flight from Boston to Florida that cost $300 last year is now $700 -- and the dollar has lost 61% of its value since January 2001. I guess the Fed has decided to define PCE in a way that conveniently confirms its pro-inflation interest rate policy.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department has backed a Super-SIV plan to bail out banks, such as Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) which created the $320 billion SIVs industry and invested the proceeds of SIV-issued commercial paper in now-worthless mortgage backed securities (MBSs).

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street," as the economy continues to slow and the credit markets face further turmoil, high-profile companies like Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) and The Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) are cutting back on buybacks as their shares drop.
• The New York Times reported that BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) is expected to be the main asset manager for a $75B fund being created by Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C), and JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) to help stabilize the market fJor asset-backed securities, according to a source. The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK) is reportedly a leading contender to be a custodian of the fund.

OTHER PAPERS:

• A ruling in Vodafone Group Plc's (NYSE: VOD) favor may cause Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) to rethink its business model for the iPhone device. The injunction against Deutsche Telekom AG (NYSE: DT)'s T-Mobile unit may force Apple to "unlock" its iPhones, the UK Times reported.
• Struggling airline UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA), along with its unit United Airlines, is struggling, but finding a carrier willing to merge may be a problem, BusinessWeek speculated.